The short version
The global economy is being shaped by two forces moving in opposite directions. Investment linked to artificial intelligence is supporting activity, while the energy shock connected to conflict is raising costs and weighing on countries that import fuel. The result is not a single worldwide story: economies connected to the technology cycle are performing differently from countries exposed to higher energy costs without the same investment boom.
The International Monetary Fund's July 2026 World Economic Outlook update projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Those numbers suggest resilience, but they should not be read as proof that every household or country will feel a recovery equally. Inflation has also proved harder to bring down, with the IMF revising its global headline inflation forecast to 4.7% for 2026.
Why AI investment matters to the forecast
AI is no longer only a software story. Building and deploying advanced systems requires data centres, chips, power generation, cloud capacity and specialised services. That spending creates demand across several industries, from construction and electricity to logistics and research. Countries already integrated into those supply chains can benefit even when other parts of the economy are slowing.
The benefit is uneven because technology investment is concentrated. A country may import AI tools and still receive only a small share of the production, engineering and infrastructure activity around them. That is why the same AI boom can look like a productivity opportunity in one market and a source of expensive imports in another.
