The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15-16, 2026. The policy statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 p.m.
This is a projections meeting, which means investors receive more than a rate decision. Updated forecasts and the closely watched policy-rate projections will show how officials see growth, inflation, unemployment and future policy.
What the Fed actually decides
The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate and issues an implementation note explaining how the decision will be carried out. It may also change the pace or design of balance-sheet policy, although no such change should be assumed before the statement.
The committee left its target range unchanged at the July meeting. Minutes show disagreement inside the committee, which makes the language around risks and future decisions especially important.
Why the Summary of Economic Projections matters
Four times a year, participants submit projections for major economic indicators. The median policy path is commonly called the “dot plot,” but it is not a promise.
Each dot is one participant's judgment under an individual economic outlook. The distribution can move quickly when inflation or labour-market data change. Markets sometimes overreact to the median while ignoring the range of views.
The four signals to watch
First, compare the statement's description of inflation with July's language. A small wording change can indicate a different balance of concern.
Second, watch how officials describe employment. The Fed has a dual mandate covering maximum employment and price stability, so weakening hiring and persistent inflation can pull policy in opposite directions.
Third, examine the 2026 and 2027 rate projections rather than only the current decision. A hold combined with a higher projected path may feel restrictive to markets.
Fourth, listen for the chair's explanation of uncertainty. Officials frequently stress that decisions are meeting-by-meeting. That does not mean guidance is meaningless; it means incoming data can override it.
When markets may react
The first move often comes immediately after the 2:00 p.m. statement and projections. A second move can follow during the 2:30 p.m. press conference as traders interpret answers on inflation, employment and the next meeting.
Treasury yields, the dollar and rate-sensitive equities can move in different directions. A lower policy path is not automatically positive if it reflects a weaker growth outlook.
What readers should avoid
Do not treat futures pricing as certainty, and do not make personal financial decisions from a single headline. The actual decision, implementation note, projections and press conference should be read together.
The schedule is confirmed on the Federal Reserve's September 2026 calendar. For more macro context, read why US debt passed $40 trillion or browse business.
