The Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting includes a new Summary of Economic Projections. Its most famous chart—the dot plot—shows where individual participants think the federal funds rate should be at future year-ends.
Each dot is one view
A dot represents one participant's judgment under that person's economic outlook. Names are not attached, and the dots are not votes on a pre-agreed path.
The median is widely reported because it provides a simple centre, but a small shift by one participant can move it. The range and clustering often reveal more than the headline.
Compare rates with the economy
Read the dots alongside projections for inflation, unemployment and growth. A lower rate path paired with weaker growth can send a different message from lower rates paired with faster disinflation.
It is not forward guidance carved in stone
Officials repeatedly update their views as data change. The chart is conditional, not a contract with markets. Futures pricing is a separate market estimate and can disagree with policymakers.
What to check in September
Compare the 2026 and 2027 medians with June, count how dispersed the dots are and listen for the chair's explanation at 2:30 p.m. ET. A divided distribution may signal more uncertainty than the median shows.
The Federal Reserve calendar confirms this is a projections meeting. See our September Fed meeting guide and more business.
