US President Donald Trump's job approval rating remains at 33%, the lowest level of his political career, while Democrats show a clear enthusiasm advantage ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The four-day national survey of 1,167 US adults found the president at the same approval level for a third consecutive poll. It also showed that concern about the cost of living and dissatisfaction with the Iran war are shaping the political environment.
Polls are snapshots rather than forecasts, but the combination of low approval, independent-voter movement and an enthusiasm gap could become a serious problem for Republicans defending narrow congressional majorities.
The key poll numbers
- Trump job approval: 33%
- Democrats “very enthusiastic” about voting: 46%
- Republicans “very enthusiastic”: 31%
- Independents choosing a Democratic congressional candidate: 36%
- Independents choosing a Republican: 22%
- Americans disapproving of Trump's cost-of-living handling: 71%
- Approval of the Iran war: 36%
- Sample: 1,167 US adults
- Margin of error: About 3 percentage points either way
The poll ended on August 31 and was published as the midterm campaign entered its final two months.
Why 33% matters
One weak poll can be an outlier. Three consecutive Reuters/Ipsos surveys at the same level suggest a more persistent problem.
Trump began his current term with 47% approval in the poll series. A fall to 33% represents a substantial loss of support, including dissatisfaction within parts of the Republican coalition.
Presidential approval is not printed on every midterm ballot, but it influences turnout, fundraising and how congressional candidates frame their campaigns. Vulnerable Republicans may need to decide whether to run closely with Trump or emphasize local issues.
Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage
The 15-point gap between very enthusiastic Democrats and Republicans may be more important than general approval.
Midterm elections often depend on which side is motivated enough to vote. If one party's supporters are angrier, more organized or more convinced that the election matters, it can outperform ordinary polling expectations.
Democratic enthusiasm does not guarantee control of Congress. District boundaries, candidate quality, turnout operations and state-level races all matter. But enthusiasm can improve volunteer activity and early-voting participation.
Independents are moving toward Democrats
Among independents asked how they would vote if the congressional election were held now, 36% chose Democrats and 22% chose Republicans.
That leaves a large share undecided or outside the two main choices, so the race remains open. Still, a 14-point difference among independents is an important warning for Republicans.
Independent voters do not form one ideological group. Some are former partisans, some are moderates and others distrust both parties. Their choices can change quickly with economic conditions or major events.
Cost of living is the central weakness
The poll found 71% disapproval of Trump's handling of the cost of living, including four in ten Republicans.
Inflation and fuel prices affect voters directly and frequently. Even when headline economic indicators appear strong, households judge the economy through rent, groceries, transport and borrowing costs.
Reuters reported that gasoline prices have risen since the United States began bombing Iran in February. The connection between foreign policy and household expenses makes the conflict politically difficult to separate from the economy.
For the past month, registered voters in the Reuters/Ipsos series have said Democrats have better ideas for the economy than Republicans—the first Democratic lead on that measure in about a decade.
The Iran war's political impact
Only 36% of respondents approved of the war, according to the poll. The conflict has included long pauses and renewed missile exchanges, while disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has affected global energy markets.
Foreign wars rarely determine elections alone, but they can reinforce economic dissatisfaction when fuel prices rise or government spending becomes a concern.
Trump's political challenge is to persuade voters that military action improves US security and that economic pressure will ease. Democrats will argue that the administration created an expensive conflict without delivering stability.
What the poll does not prove
This is a survey of adults, not a state-by-state model of likely voters. Congressional control is decided through individual House districts and statewide Senate races.
The three-point margin of error means small changes should not be overinterpreted. Campaign events, candidate debates and economic data can alter opinions before November 3.
The poll also does not translate directly into seats. A party can lead nationally while falling short in the districts that decide the majority.
What to watch before November
The biggest questions are whether Democratic enthusiasm persists and whether Trump can improve perceptions of the economy.
Watch fuel prices, inflation reports, the direction of the Iran conflict and the choices of independent voters. Candidate-specific polling in competitive states and districts will become more informative than national approval alone.
For now, the survey shows a difficult environment for the White House: approval stuck at a record low, a broad cost-of-living backlash and an opposition electorate that appears more motivated to vote.
Thumbnail uses a Reuters file photograph of President Donald Trump at the White House.
