Venezuela could more than double its oil production over the next several years through new agreements with American and international companies, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during a visit to the country.
The forecast would represent a dramatic reversal for an industry that once produced more than three million barrels per day but has operated near 1.1 to 1.2 million after years of underinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions.
Which companies are involved?
Chevron, Italy's Eni, India's ONGC, GeoPark and GE Vernova are among companies expected to sign or advance energy projects in Venezuela.
US officials are also supporting a deal involving North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP. The private company is set to receive a 100-year lease covering 17 oilfields said to contain about 65 billion barrels of reserves.
Some of those assets were previously connected to Chinese and Russian interests, giving the arrangement geopolitical importance beyond its commercial value.
Why Venezuela produces far below its potential
Venezuela holds the world's largest proven crude reserves, but much of the oil is heavy and expensive to extract and process. Production requires specialized equipment, reliable electricity, skilled workers and continuous investment.
Nationalization, corruption, loss of technical staff and US sanctions contributed to a long decline. Infrastructure deteriorated, wells stopped operating and refineries suffered repeated breakdowns.
Increasing output is therefore not as simple as switching existing wells back on. Companies must repair facilities, secure financing and build supply chains for equipment.
Could production really double?
Moving from roughly 1.2 million to more than 2.4 million barrels per day is technically possible given Venezuela's reserves and historical production. Achieving it within a few years would still require unusually fast investment and stable policy.
Foreign companies will want contracts protected from political change, access to revenue in hard currency and clear rules governing ownership and exports.
The condition of fields and pipelines may also produce delays that are invisible in headline reserve estimates.
Impact on global oil prices
Additional Venezuelan supply could place downward pressure on crude prices, particularly if growth arrives while production remains high elsewhere.
Venezuelan heavy crude is especially useful for refineries on the US Gulf Coast designed to process similar grades. Shorter shipping routes can make those barrels commercially attractive compared with supplies from farther away.
However, output growth measured over years will not immediately solve price spikes caused by conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. Markets will distinguish between promised future capacity and oil available today.
Questions around the 100-year lease
The NABEP deal was arranged without a competitive process, according to Reuters, creating questions about transparency and value for Venezuela.
The company's leader, Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, has attracted controversy in the past. A century-long lease covering enormous reserves requires especially strong disclosure because its consequences extend beyond any current government.
US officials argue that private investment can rebuild production and improve economic conditions. Critics will ask who receives the revenue, how environmental obligations are enforced and why competing bids were not invited.
A geopolitical realignment
Energy cooperation signals a major change in relations between Washington and Caracas. The United States previously relied heavily on sanctions to pressure Venezuela's government and limit its oil revenue.
Closer involvement by US companies could reduce Russian and Chinese influence, while Venezuela gains capital and access to equipment.
That alignment remains vulnerable to political disputes. Long-term projects need predictable relations, and both countries have a history of abrupt policy changes.
The production target is bold but not impossible. Its credibility will depend on signed contracts, visible investment and monthly output—not diplomatic promises. If Venezuela does double production, the effects will reach fuel markets and geopolitics far beyond Latin America.
Source: Reuters energy report.
